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Governor, most bonds lead in polls

By Laura Kurtzman
Associated Press
August 31, 2006

SACRAMENTO - Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's approval rating has inched up to 50 percent, according to a poll released Wednesday by the Public Policy Institute of California, which had him leading his Democratic opponent, Phil Angelides, by 13 points.

Republicans are more likely to support Schwarzenegger than Democrats are to support Angelides, the state treasurer, according to the poll, which put the governor ahead 45 percent to 32 percent among likely voters. Six percent said they supported third-party candidates and 17 percent were undecided.

Republicans were also more likely than Democrats to say they were satisfied with their candidate. While nearly six in 10 Republicans said they were happy with Schwarzenegger, just over four in 10 Democrats said they were happy with Angelides.

"Maybe what this poll shows is that Angelides hasn't yet made the case for Democratic voters and other voters about why he would provide better leadership than Arnold Schwarzenegger," said Mark Baldassare, survey director for the nonpartisan PPIC.

Angelides adviser Bill Carrick said the treasurer was at a disadvantage because Schwarzenegger has spent so much more money than Angelides on television attack ads this summer. He said Angelides' numbers will improve when he starts a serious advertising campaign after Labor Day, the traditional start of the fall campaign.

"We have tremendous potential to pick up Democrats, decline-to-states, women, older voters, Latinos and other voters," he said.

But Schwarzenegger adviser Matthew Dowd said Angelides' message may be crowded out by all the other measures on the November ballot.

The poll found all four of the infrastructure bonds the governor and the Legislature put on the November ballot had at least 50 percent support. But Proposition 84, a $5.4 billion parks and water bond the governor is also supporting, had more opponents than supporters. Forty percent said they support it and 45 percent said they opposed it.

That finding differed from other recent polls, such as a July Field Poll that put Proposition 84 ahead, 49 percent to 31 percent.

And while PPIC found Proposition 1C, the $2.9 billion affordable housing bond, had the most support, Field found it had the least support.

The telephone survey of 989 likely voters was taken from Aug. 16 to 23. It had a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, higher for subgroups such as Democrats and Republicans.

PPIC also reported:

  • Proposition 1B, the $19.9 billion transportation bond, had 50 percent support and 38 percent opposed.
  • Proposition 1D, the $10.4 billion education facilities bond, was at 51 percent yes and 39 percent no.
  • Proposition 1E, the $4.1 billion flood and levee repair bond, was at 56 percent yes and 35 percent no.